Voodoo Economics

How to eat better

2011-12-30T02:27:00.000-08:00

Never

1. No butter.
2. No cake
3. No sugar
4. No deep fried foods
5. No ice-cream
6. No packaged foods (incl ready meals and Twinkies)
7. No MSG
8. No soda
9. No potato chips
10. No fast food
11. No cookies
12. No carbonated drinks
13. No lard, ghee
14. No salt in restaurant food (add your own)

Meh

1. Cheese - twice a week max
2. Red meat - once a week (lean cut, organic)
3. Fish (3 times a week - grilled, wild)
4. Milk (as little as possible)
5. Tofu - once a week
6. Bread - twice a week
7. White rice - twice a week
8. Sandwiches - twice a week
9. Unsalted table crackers - if you're sick
10. Freshly pressed juice, unsweetened (3 times a week)
11. Miso soup (once a week)
12. Pasta (HALF a portion, once a week)
13. Wine (once a week - share with friends or family)
14. Sunflower/canola oil - stir fry only
15. Multivitamin - 3 times a week - if you need it

Yes

1. Yoghurt (natural, low fat, unsweetened)
2. Broccoli - steamed
3. Sweet potato - steamed
4. Avocado
5. Quinoa
6. Brown rice
7. Lentils
8. Banana OR papaya OR melon OR watermelon OR kiwi (at least once a day)
9. All other fruit - whenever possible
10. Sauerkraut
11. Tempeh (stir-fried)
12. Spinach (fresh)
13. Almonds (raw)
14. Oatmeal
15. Apple Cider Vinegar (one teaspoon every night)
16. Dark green leafy vegetables (steamed or stir fried, every other day)
17. Blueberries, blackberries
18. Pure red grape juice
19. Pure cranberry juice (3 times a week)
20. Water
21. Olive Oil (in salad)
22. Walnuts (raw)
23. Watermelon seeds (raw)
24. Alfalfa sprouts
25. Aubergine
26. Zucchini
27. Pumpkin
28. Fresh ginger
29. Ginseng - twice a week

hello california

2011-08-25T20:28:00.000-07:00

Hello again,
Pastel green leaves
Powder blue cloudless skies
Free parking, vast choices
Sparse restaurants, cheap fuel
Jetskis pulled by an SUV
Blond boarders tanned
Leaves circling in the hollows of wind
A sea of bikes yet no sidewalks
Invites, Evites, soundbites, obedient dogs
I see you

Hello again,
Spanish voices
Throaty engine basslines
Tweeting seagulls and wispy currents
Slow train and long klaxon
VC talk and Apple chatter
I hear you

Hello again,
Chilly nights, sweet western fragrance
Lily blooms and asphalt melt
Refried beans and classic coffee
Quiet woods and startup engines
I feel you

I'm home.

Coercion: choose one

2011-04-03T03:26:00.000-07:00

1.Coercion: People have no choice but to accept it.
2.Tradition: Alternatives have never occurred to people.
3.Apathy: People don’t care one way or another.
4.Pragmatic acquiescence: People know it’s not ideal, but it seems like fate.
5.Instrumental acceptance: It’s not satisfactory, but it gives people some long-term benefit.
6.Normative agreement: People believe it is the right thing to do in the circumstances.
7.Ideal normative agreement: People believe it is the ideal outcome.

- David Held, Political Theory in the Modern State (1989)

Taxis in Singapore

2011-03-31T22:34:00.000-07:00

Taxis in Singapore are usually blue or yellow in colour, and are run by about 7 companies. The most popular one is Comfort Delcro and Citycab.

The government does not permit driver-owned taxis. Instead, drivers lease their cabs from one of the cab companies.

Rent of a taxi is S$130 a day (US$100 a day). To break even, each taxi must carry at least 40 passengers a day. The taxi is usually in use for about 20 hours a day, and occasionally 24.

The predominant taxi models are:

Toyota Crown (3.0 litre, diesel)
Hyundai Sonata

There are also a few Mercedes Benz, Chevrolet and Nissan Cedric taxis in use.

The taxi of choice used to be the Nissan Cedric, which gave favour to Toyota's trusty Crown for reliability reasons. Recently, the Hyundai Sonata burst onto the scene as the cab of choice because of its cheap automatic transmission. You don't want to be caught in rush hour traffic on the AYE with a manual transmission.

Taxi drivers usually work in pairs, and do a shift each (day or night). Some "crazy" taxi drivers do not have a partner, and regularly drive over 12 hours a day, 7 days a week.

The government mandates that all taxis be replaced after 5 years' service.
Typically, a taxi will run 600 kilometers (400 miles) every day. Most taxis on the roads of Singapore are about 3 years old, with over 600,000 kilometers on the clock (that's 400,000 miles). One three-year-old Toyota Crown had 845,000 km (600,000 miles) on the clock. And it felt new. All drivers swore that they had not replaced their engines even once.

Taxis are always serviced every month. That's a full government-mandated service, not just an oil change. Taxi drivers don't like this service, because it's half a shift of lost revenue.

Singapore taxis burn about 4200 US Gallons (17,500 litres) of fuel a year.
Having said that, taxis in Singapore are cheap. Much cheaper than they are in the US, or Europe. A trip from Changi airport to downtown (about 12 miles) will not set you back more than $S25 - that's about US$19. Compare that with $55 from SFO to San Francisco, a similar distance. Fares are strictly metered, and the meters are inspected by the government. A taxi driver may not charge for extras that he isn't entitled to. Extras include the rush hour, booking by phone (convenience charge of $2.50), weekends, late nights and ERP fees.

Most of my friends in Singapore have gotten by without the use of a car. In metropolitan and residential areas, a cab is a maximum of 7 minutes away if you book one by phone. The automated phone service delivers a taxi to your location, based on driver availability in the region, and even remembers your name an call location based on caller ID. It works well, except on Sunday mornings, when everyone goes to church.

What I noticed is that many senior "uncle" drivers seemed to be in the older, more traditional Toyota Crown cabs with manual transmission. They seem to have the same opinions about life in Singapore, and all agree that they are forced to work very hard to compensate for the high cost of living. Driving a taxi is something they do because they have to, not out of choice. They speak deferently of the government, though remind me that as a tourist, I am unaware of the harsh realities that Singapore society bestows on its elders with few savings.

In my next post, I'll explore some innovations from the Singapore MRT (subway system) and I'll show you how it's possible to organize a system for mass comfort, mass transit, and mass throughput.

Experts need to assume more risk

2011-03-04T13:52:00.000-08:00

Noreena Hertz presented an excellent Ted talk on what the consequence is of trusting "experts".

A few interesting points:

1. It has been shown that decision-making centres in the brain are "switched off" when experts are being listened to

2. Experts are not infallible. Yet there is a growing market of trust in experts (that's why law, medicine, financial advice or any profession with specialized knowledge are growing industries)

3. Actively manage dissent. Welcome dissent and recognize the value of disagreement

4. Democratize expertise, for example, as Miss Hertz suggests, using Prediction Markets, like Best Buy does.

I was previously involved in a startup company that supplied technology similar to that used by Best Buy in "democratizing" expertise to make key decisions. The theory was: a shipping clerk is sometimes party to very key information ("the word on the street") that certain VPs might not be - a method of him contributing this information and this information being aggregated would lead to more reliable forecasts.

While I am equally afraid as Miss Hertz is of putting trust in experts, I would like to suggest an additional factor that might improve one's risk in putting trust in experts: how much skin do they have in the game?

I have benefited from the best medical advice in my life from my very own father, who, knowing I was sick, made it a point to call me on the other side of the world and never stopped asking questions, in a desperate bid to eliminate conditions that he was aware of. The questions continued months after, sometimes years after I was healed. And then I realized why: I was his son, and he had a big stake in my health.

Malpractice insurance, legal indemnity, "past performance is not an indicator of future performance" and a general "I'll give it my best shot, but I don't promise anything" have made it all too easy for professionals to become complacent. I have never heard of a young University graduate fearing going to Law school for the consequences of him sending an innocent man to death row or a doctor fearing becoming a doctor because the consequences of a misdiagnosis would be on his conscience.

My point is that incentives have become increasingly skewed, but the expert titles increasingly valuable (which means that demand for experts has consistently outstripped supply). People have consequently become a lot more trusting and are willing to trade risk for money that they pay the experts. It should be the other way round!

Next time you choose a professional, don't look at his academic, business or other qualifications as hard as you look at his references. When had this person failed, and how did he treat that failure? Does this person actively seek to earn your trust, by demonstrating that a loss for you will be a loss for her? Will this person care about the consequences of the advice he gives, much like Noreena Hertz cared about the consequences of her father drinking a large amount of water?

Will the austerity plan create jobs?

2011-01-25T23:53:00.001-08:00

Yes it will.

Having lived ten years in the United States, I have tired of hearing the same old speech that is designed to promote fear. Marilyn Manson explained the reasons why very eloquently in the Michael Moore film "Bowling for Columbine".

At last, a President that looks ahead to the future! A true entrepreneur, who encourages risk, innovation, with (wait for it) even less resources than before, in return for a great reward.

The State of the Union speech signals the end to spending taxpayers' money to "boost the economy." To my chagrin, and that of my fellow Americans, I've seen my money go up in smoke. Unemployment is flirting dangerously with the headline 10% number, and new investment is now going to Singapore and so are the jobs (mine too). Only last summer, I found it exceptionally hard to hire a Ruby on Rails developer in Singapore, but now that's changing...

Anyway, back to my country: with signals come expectations. If expectations are met, credibility follows. A credible commitment to reduce public debt would spur investment and therefore job creation. And, create more long term investment if our bondholders found the value of their bonds stabilizing.

Mr Obama, thank you. I aspire to be an entrepreneur like yourself.

Alam Kasenally

Ipod Touch and belonging

2011-01-09T18:58:00.000-08:00

On my return from Singapore, I met my friend RJ on Ramona Street in Palo Alto. RJ is about 65, and was sporting a black knitted ski cap, a dark green windbreaker, jeans, two T shirts and thick boots. We sat down to talk.

When he asked me for the launch date for my "website" (as he called my startup) and I told him, he said he'd write it down in his Ipod Touch, which he brought out from his winter coat, and deftly entered into iCal. He next showed me photos of the family he once had and also an app or two I hadn't seen.

RJ is homeless and has been so for 6 years. When he's collected enough money from his pension, he'll move to Italy, where he'll join his aunt in Tuscany in her two bedroom appartment. I hope RJ makes it to Italy. That's where he was born, and that's where he belongs.

The story of how he acquired the iPod Touch is even more fascinating. One evening, in Cupertino, a lady approached him on the street and asked "Sir, if you could have anything you wanted, what would you ask for for Christmas?"

RJ thought long and hard, and finally said "an iPod Touch". The reasons why, he said, were that he could own it without a monthly fee, and make outgoing calls for free using Google Voice (or for a fixed monthly fee using Skype). Receiving calls was a little bit of a (surmountable) challenge. He could also check and send email (he sported both Gmail and Yahoo email addresses, but said that he preferred Gmail.

The mysterious benefactor disappeared and appeared at the same time the next day brandishing an Apple carrier bag, containing the iPod Touch in question. "Happy Christmas, Sir!" she smiled. He never saw her again.

"You see," said RJ, "People like that restore my faith in the goodness of humanity... I used to have friends, plenty of friends. But once I became homeless, I suddenly didn't. Therefore Skype and Google Voice work fine for me. Forget receiving calls, I mean, who's going to call a guy like me anyway?"

As I drove home that wintry evening in my heated car, i thought of the veracity of RJ's claim that this generous gift had changed his life. How it had given him the opportunity to look for jobs, the opportunity to exist as a digital citizen of the world, connected to each and everybody, to know about the history of Singapore (which he explained to me in fine detail - the only thing he couldn't remember was Lee Kwan Yew's name), to know that Jerry Brown had been elected as governor of California (I had been absent during the election, but equally connected, so had no excuse).

And slowly, I began to smile. My friend did belong.

Do you need to keep your people happy?

2010-10-25T13:21:00.000-07:00

In ~~today's~~ yesterday's FT Jonathan Moules explores ways that small companies, startups in particular, can keep people happy.

Mr Moules discusses various ways startups attempt to retain employees, and makes it clear that money, being an extrinsic motivator, doesn't work. To know why, watch this humorous exposé based on the work of Dan Pink.

We get free coffee!

Having come to Silicon Valley and survived two booms and two busts, I've witnessed (and enjoyed) many attempts to make employees feel a sense of community, camaraderie and belonging, as tools for higher retention. These attempts have included:

Unlimited Frappucinos
Company ski trips to Tahoe
Friday beer bashes
All-hands meetings, where the CEO has been in a dunk-tank
Free lunches (who said there was no such thing)
Free massages
Free concierge service
"Free" car (haha the taxman smiled all the way to the treasury with that!)

All of these incentives have more or less been extrinsic ones, and like Mr Pink predicts, have become old. Perks like these get taken for granted, and treated like rights, then abused, ignored and even criticized.

Mr Moules describes the experience of meeting the Queen (a customer of one of his case companies) as an experience that is not likely to be forgotten, hence making the case for unique experiences being likely to encourage intrinsic motivation.

What I've learned

In the last six months, I've learned four things, which might seem rather obvious but are in fact often overlooked during the hiring process.

1. The motivation to perform, excel and stay needs to come from within, and this needs to be demonstrated by the potential candidate. Does the candidate believe that the cause you, as a founder, are working for, is bigger than herself and yourself? Don't let your love for a candidate cloud your vision and assume that she has this motivation. Put her to the test during her probationary period (yes, pay well for this probationary period!)

2. Hire slowly, fire quickly. Enough said.

3. Empower your team by giving them ownership over the entire company. Only then will they understand and be able to feel their importance. Give them a little bit of trust, then, if they pass the test, a little more. See how they react when they are given unexpected responsibility (eg, when you're on a flight or you're sick). Is it "not their problem" and do they do nothing? Or do they try hard to avoid potential problems, and represent the company with pride just like you would?

4. Learn what your candidates passions and dreams in life are. And, if this candidate is passionate about your company, make sure that being with your company will allow this candidate's passions to flourish. Only then will the employee be truly happy. While it might not be your responsibility as a founder to provide a venue for candidates to develop their passions, if your company happens to be a vehicle, you'll see much of the passion transformed into love for your own company.

Although I made many friends at Liberate Technologies, I often wondered what I was doing working for a company that made software for TV when I didn't even have a TV of my own :)

Love

What's paradoxical about love and religion is that there is more published work about these two topics than about anything else: novels, self-help books, literary analyses, plays, comedies, sacred texts, manuals, poems, translations, blog posts, magazines, tweets. And yet, these are the two topics where no matter how much you read, you won't be further enlightened.

So, you may read all the books and blogposts you want trying to understand what love is. But when you experience love, you'll know that it's love, even if you hadn't read those books.

The same goes for hiring.

When you have the right candidate who is right for your company, you'll just know. And, like in a marriage, if you have to try hard to retain her, you're with the wrong employee.

Drink this for me! Or, I'll create that for us

I think there are two types of cult:

The ones led by people (exemplified by someone who came from Indiana) who make their followers drink spiked Kool Aid in the name of faith.

Those (exemplified by a leader who comes from Finland) whose members brew their own version of Kool Aid, also in the name of faith.

When I read this excellent essay on how to hire like you're hiring for a cult, I'd love to think the author was talking about the latter type of cult :)

Survival Skills that Should Be Taught At Elementary School

2010-08-31T10:53:00.000-07:00

1. How to cook 10 meals.
2. How to swim
3. How to manage money
4. How to be an entrepreneur
5. How to understand the news

Why:
1. Thank you Jamie Oliver.

"We, the adults of the last four generations have blessed our children with a lifespan shorter than those of their own parents."
It's time to do something about that.

2. In 2004, nine people in the US alone drowned every day.
Needlessly.

3. Parents are more comfortable talking to their kids about sex than money. Money is taboo. And putting a credit card in the hands of today's University Graduate is like putting a Ferrari in the hands of a 10 year old.

4. Being an entrepreneur is a mindset. That nothing is out of your control. This is a survival skill in itself.

5. The news has a direct impact on all children, yet kids are protecting themselves from it. Rightly so, for they are becoming immune to the marketing messages behind the sponsors

Watch "Bowling for Columbine" and look for Marilyn Manson's interview. And then you'll know why.

It's time for change. And the time is now.

Why make billions when we can make... millions?

2010-06-20T12:55:00.000-07:00

Here are the largest numbers I have been able to imagine at various ages:

Age 5: "OK class, I want you to count down from 100" (Mrs Millner)
Age 6: "There are tens of thousands of people in America. It is one of the biggest countries in the World" (Mrs Lardner)
Age 7: "I've got millions of stickers at home" (Norman Benezra)
Age 8: "A Rolls Royce is what millionaires drive" (my mother)
Age 9: "China has one thousand million people, it will soon be a superpower. The World has four thousand million people" (my grandfather)
Age 10: "A billion is a million million, but in America they call a thousand million a "billion" (my grandfather)
1990: "The Savings and Loans crisis is likely to cost the American taxpayer over $100 billion" (Time Magazine)
1998: It's called "Google". I think it means 10 to the power of 24 or something (Alberto)
1999: Yahoo! is bigger than British Airways! (Poster at LHR December 1999 - YHOO market cap at $120bn)
1999: Dot Com billionaires
2008: The Zimbabwe government is now circulating a Z$ 100 trillion bank note
2009: "What if I had a Googol pennies?" (Ria - age 5)
"Well, you know your school, you could buy that with all that money"
"Really!?"
"And I'll ask you for a job!"
"Why?"

2009: The healthcare plan is estimated as costing $800 billion, bringing the total US debt to over $10 trillion... (Reuters)

Will we have Clean Energy Trillionaires?
or
Nanotech Googlites?

I believe

2010-06-20T12:51:00.000-07:00

That people are good
That heart disease can be reversed
That we have much to learn from children
That sunrise is an auspicious gift
That laughter is the best medicine
That the financially poor have as much to give
That a smile is a priceless gift
That cynics live in the present
That there’s nothing that you can do that can’t be done
That love never dies: it is kept alive by a pilot flame

What is mankind's greatest achievement?

2010-06-20T12:32:00.001-07:00

Flight

Something's not right...

2010-06-14T07:22:00.000-07:00

While protecting the residents of Afghanistan against terrorists whose only aim was to conduct suicide missions to the United States and terrorize innocent Afghanis along the way, we happened to stumble upon $1 trillion worth of Lithium. What hope for the people of Afghanistan! This could put an end to all their suffering!

Chick Magnet

2010-06-06T12:49:00.000-07:00

Tino: That's one Chick Magnet of a car your brother has!
Anje: Yeah, I was just about to say that!
Mateo (4): Hey, what's a chick magnet? [ Mateo's favorite movie is Pixar's "Cars", and his favorite character in it happens to be "Chick Hicks"]
Me: Ask your father!
Anje (to the rescue): It's a car that both girls and boys can share

Life doesn't get much better than this...

Not Hip Enough

2010-06-02T19:48:00.000-07:00

Wanting to understand the current wave of affection (or rather affliction) for the new Hipster culture, I decided to do some reading and also talk to some friends who're self-pronounced hipsters (or otherwise in denial).

What I noticed is that "hipsters" reject the pressures of modern consumerism, sometimes resorting to inconvencience (unconsciously or otherwise) to make a statement on their sophistication.

Furthermore, they are disillusioned by the advertising culture (why so many work for Google and Ad Networks up in the City, I don't know :), can explain the difference between Mitt Romney and Pete Wilson, have an understanding of fine art, are good at mental arithmetic, are good at improv, can tell the difference between a '94 and '96 wine, can move large planets out of orbit and can whoop my a** at sports. Except for, of course, my favorite sport: sleeping.

I've also been introduced to the Hipster toolkit:

- Karman Ghia
- 1984 IBM PC Keyboard
- Hemp shirts and
- Gaulois cigarettes in shirt pocket
- Vans sneakers
- A degree from Oberlin College
- Distinctive glasses that don't really have any optical power
- Loyalty card at an organic sushi restaurant (where they don't use Carbon Monoxide to keep the Toro bright red)
- MUNI pass
and finally:
- Esoteric iTunes playlist

I am no biking expert, but I wouldn't want to bike in San Carlos on a fixed-gear bike. Though a fixed gear bike is cool in its simplicity and design, it's just not made for hills.

I almost jumped out of my skin when one of my best friend accused me of having hipster aspirations:

- Old car
- iPhone 2G
- Bike rather than drive
- Vegetarian
- Grungy clothes

I can safely protest that my current image is all out of necessity, and let's face it, I'll never be cool enough!

(Written on Caltrain Northbound in a Mac OS X terminal using "vi". There. I'm no hipster)

surprise call

2010-05-19T10:07:00.000-07:00

Had a very interesting conversation with the CEO of a French company considering the US market to launch his products. Chatted in depth about Twitter, Foursquare and Social Networking in the US. One of those mornings where you learn a lot even before your morning coffee... I love being able to listen to and share ideas with people across the World!

Happiness? There's no app for that

2010-05-18T06:01:00.000-07:00

One of my favourite parts of the week is my drive to SFO with Tino. During this drive, we've discussed topics as diverse as Tiger Woods, literature, family, public policy, art, and of course technology.

On our last drive, we decided to talk about the iPad, and what a killer app might be. Tino believes that as well as a content consumption, and light content creation device, it might be a killer communication device in the future.

Tino discussed his and Lucy's experiences with Skype. I was intrigued to know that Lucy was put off with Skype very early in her experience. The very unusual symptom of her husband seeming to have "hiccups" while saying something crucially important from Washington DC was enough for her to want to forego a free connection and resort to the trusty telephone. A trusted, expensive-to-use technology with limitations (hiss, faintness, echo) that are well known and accepted to her.

As an early user of VOIP (I'm talking Speak Freely, a command-line VOIP utility that was first run on Unix, then ported to the PC in 1995), I can testify to her frustration. I remember shipping my brother in Mauritius 3.5" floppy discs with the speak freely program on it (downloading 1.2M over modem would have taken him all day and cost hundreds of dollars, at that time), then going through countless "can you hear me" test calls. At which point, my father said "Let's just call him" (for $2/minute). I noticed, too, that my father would still call me for $2 a minute rather than use skype, when there was something important to say. He was, no doubt, trying to save himself from the indignity of hiccups as well.

Skype has made massive improvements, but is still hiccuppy, an artifact more of compression, transmission, lag and the whole mechanism of shipping your packetised voice across country, then re-assembling those packets.

Having tried Dragon Dictate products on the iPad and iPhone, I can empathise with the frustration that causes a new user to abandon a product, no matter how technologically advanced.

Premise: Dragon dictate will free your hands and allow you to input your text faster than with your keyboard!
Facts: At the very best, if you babysit the dictation device, you'll get decent throughput, and if you don't, you might SMS your best friend that you're drinking with his wife, rather than an invitation for drinks at the Y.
To me: Dragon Dictate is a toy. I would prefer to suffer the inconveniences of stopping my car to type an SMS than the mental anguish of dealing with handsfree dictation on the go.

Which led us to talk about what might make Skype easier. Tino, I think found the holy grail, when he said that the conscious act of starting Skype, waiting for a connection to the server, then locating the contact, calling them if they were available, was enough to put many people off.

Here, I'm inclined to think: do people want apps? Or do they want to do things? Apple took a big bet that people don't want programs behind a start menu, super high configurability. They just want to DO things - hence apps.

Do users want a simple command and control experience? Could "Call Tino", issued as a voice command, which would ring either his Blackberry or skype account, WITHOUT even launching Skype, be what might compensate a new Skype user for the uncertainty of a jittery connection? Are apps a thing of the past?

I think that no-apps are a thing of the future.

Much like, when you pick up the phone and dial a number, you are oblivious to the exchanges in between you and the other subscriber, or even that the other subscriber might be on a mobile or satellite phone, or even in another country! At the dawn of the telephone age, placing a phone call required knowledge of the other person's exchange, and manual intervention by an operator. Now, the distances, technology and complexity in between are taken for granted. Because placing a call is so easy. (And almost too easy. I've been woken up by "pocket calls" from friends in other countries in the middle of the night way too many times. That's what you get for having a name that starts with "A".)

My vision of the future is:

"Call Dad for his birthday at 1100 his time and remind me half an hour before"
"Send this document to Rosemary, emphasising the executive summary"
"I'm unreachable until Asia is online again"
"When my boss approves my vacation, let my parents and wife know, and confirm the booking for the hotel and the cruise"

Computers have come a long way. But they are still forcing us to think and act the way they do. They need not.

The Strangest Meeting

2010-05-11T15:12:00.000-07:00

All I can say about the meeting is:

I thought that only in movies did female secret service agents:

- Resemble Sandra Bullock
- Wear thick-framed spectacles
- Carry two Blackberries
- Wear black
- Put others under oath

That's all I can say.

Strangest phone call

2010-05-11T11:56:00.000-07:00

On Monday evening, while I writhed in bed with dehydration, I got a call from a 619 number. San Diego, I remembered. Might be Arlene, might be Bruce, might be James. Anyway, they can wait.

When I returned the call, I found out that the call was for a reference. For someone that had worked for me in the past. But the most interesting things were:

The interviewer wanted to interview me in PERSON
The interviewer had flown to the Bay Area from San Diego just to interview me
The interviewer could not tell me what job this was for
The interviewer could not tell me the name of the candidate
The interviewer did not know where Redwood Shores was
The interviewer told me she would stay in the SF Bay Area until I was ready to meet her.

I'm meeting her in 1 hour in Palo Alto. I'm nervous...

do Antz have lungs?

2010-05-01T11:58:00.000-07:00

I recently had the privilege of watching about 20 minutes of Dreamworks' "Antz" with Yasin on my way back from Palo Alto.

Two things:

The "chewing gum" scene was amazing - I always wondered what an ant went through stuck to the bottom of a piece of chewing gum which in turn was stuck to the bottom of a Reebok sneaker.

I almost dropped my iPhone when I saw the female ant lead (voiced by Sharon Stone) attempt Mouth to Mouth resuscitation on "Z", the renegade soldier mouthed, I mean voiced, by Woody Allen.

Huh?

I always thought that ants breathed using passive diffusion through tracheoles in their abdomens (which were clearly not visible in the animation). So forcing air down an ant's gullet isn't likely to result in any resuscitation as the ant has no lungs!

But maybe four year olds are not supposed to know that?
Or that Antz have lungs and ants don't?
Or maybe snogging Woody Allen was in Sharon Stone's contract?

I forgot to ask Yasin whether these ants carried cellphones, like Scooby Doo's digitally remastered friends do, way before cellphones were invented (in the 1970s).

What will they think of next?

There for the rhyme

2010-04-29T13:06:00.000-07:00

From Owl City's "Fireflies":

'Cos I get a thousand hugs
From ten thousand lightning bugs
As they try to teach me how to dance
A foxtrot above my head
A sock hop [squish!] beneath my bed
Disco ball is just hanging by a thread...

Huh?

Oh well, it's fun for playing Tap Tap Revenge to :)

send cash, not ash!

2010-04-18T12:21:00.000-07:00

Funny sight, driving to SFO this morning, saw two Boeing 747s, a Virgin Atlantic and an Air France at the International terminal, parked at almost 90 degrees, with their noses together. They had obviously been grounded since last Thursday,

According to Tino, it looked like the two planes were having a meeting.

Air France: "Euuuh, any news, brother?"

Virgin: "No, mate. But I heard they're letting some planes in at low altitude"

Air France: "Malheur! But that's not us, we're flying across the World"

Virgin: "Hey cheer up mate, want to head down over to Ausiellos for a...err.. gallon?"

Air France: "And you say that we have a drink problem en France?"

Virgin: "My tires are killing me. Hey Frog, how are those Dunlops doing for you?"

Air France: "Hey-lo, look who's here! Iceland Air and he's looking a litoll embarrassé!"

Virgin: "Ash-hole!"

The sight was almost exquisite enough to warrant a drive back to the airport with my brother's camera.

Barnes and Noble's Nook: first impressions

2010-04-12T21:49:00.001-07:00

After a rainy evening in Palo Alto, I decided to catch the latest headlines at Hillsdale's B&N. But I was drawn to the info desk and a prominent display showcasing B&N's new Nook device. The lady at the desk scurried away, and wheeled in her resident 20-year old Whizz Kid - armed with low cut jeans, sneakers and a bad attitude T-Shirt. He let me take a look.

Having had the opportunity to play with the iPad hours before (what else can you do on a rainy Saturday, eh), I was expecting something similar in experience. But it's like comparing a bicycle with a helicopter.

Do I want a helicopter? Hell yeah! Do I need one? Am I airlifting o-type blood to a disaster zone? No. And - on pain of death, nobody near by bike!

In case you were wondering, my iPad is the bike and the Nook is Barnes and Noble's heavily engineered (in-house, I am told, B&N have a secret hoard of hardware developers) helicopter.

You see, this isn't a war of readers. This is a war of purposes.

While the Book^H^H^H^HNook is busy trying to prove it's a better mousetrap than the Kindle, the iPad is taking a bet that being an Apple Computer its superior [looks|interface|versatility|everything] will make e-ink a non-issue. The way that the iPod Touch made playing MP3s (the way that Rio did, and did very well in 2001 while being incumbent during the iPod's gestation period) pretty much a non-issue.

OK here is my two bit summary:

- Interesting
- $250
- A little on the klunky side (takes very deliberate keypresses to select and open your book)
- You get a miniature color lcd "bookshelf" at the bottom of the device. On the iPad you get a full-screen bookcase! :) Just an observation, I don't really care.
- The e-ink emulates real ink very well, and looks like a 24-pin dot matrix printout of a book (letters are the right shape, but a bit faded, and not quite black enough to fool you into thinking you're reading a book)
- Slow - the e-ink seems to "stutter" in re-drawing the page. Not a biggie, but caused a double-take the first couple of times
- Crashed when I was trying to change font
- I kept being tempted to touch the screen - that's what an iPad does to you
- I didn't start crying within 5 minutes, like I did with the iPad
- No web browser (though it features an all-you-can-eat (I mean, all-you-can-pay-B&N-for-new-content) 3G wireless connection to AT&T)

Which would I take to bed with me if I had to read War and Peace? Neither.
Which would I prefer to read the NYT on? The iPad of course, as I'd read the free edition in Safari. The Nook requires you to buy the current edition.

About e-books in general:
I won't say I'm a dot-commie by any stretch of the imagination, and I think money should flow to the creative authors and the middlemen should keep a gold coin from the pile. But come on. $10 for a title I could pay $2 used for on Amazon marketplace can and WILL get old after a while. Because two weeks after I've read the book, my utility is close to zero.

I think the Nook has its uses and will find a market. But it's B&N's marketing equivalent of the Apple Newton. Sorry, but not quite there...

The iPad and me

2010-04-03T22:03:00.000-07:00

It's very rare that I buy new things. If you know me well, you'll know that I have never bought a new car, never bought a new phone (my 2G iPhone was donated by Sherry to replace the other 2G iPhone that I lost, donated by my brother), even this Macbook Pro came out of a friendly Nicaraguan guy's raincoat in Hillsdale mall's Starbucks. [I later discovered that it had Apple Care - something that he didn't know. I know it wasn't raining on Feb 11, 2008, the day I picked it up].

I have therefore taken a very uncharacteristic move in buying not just one, but two iPads on launch day, and reserving them on the day they were offered for pre-ordering.

But first, I'd like to say that I thoroughly enjoyed the frenzy surrounding the product launch yesterday. I exchanged knowing smiles with the brave souls camped outside Palo Alto's Apple Store, and tried to fit into the frame of the KTVU Channel 9's camera as the channel interviewed them for the evening news. But failed, I think.

This morning, I realized that I had to be at TedX in Berkeley all day. My brother and his entourage waited almost an hour at Hillsdale's Apple Store and picked up my order for me. They even got served coffee and donuts while waiting in line.

OK I'll get to the meat soon. But first I'll say that I am grateful to my brother for buying me a neoprene iPad case which I didn't expect :)

Now, let's get down to business.

The name: it never even crossed my mind that i"Pad" was inappropriate for women, until I talked to my friend Anna-Marie.

Aesthetics: the device is reminiscent of the unibody Macbook pro. The buttons on the side look the same - squared, notchy (not wedgy) and click just right.

Screen: crisp and bright. Fonts seems incredibly smooth - more book-like and less computer-like

Sound: Mono speaker ports at bottom (3 grilles).

Controls: Volume up/down on right, similar to iPhone. New "Lock orientation" switch just above it. Very useful when you're in bed.

On/Off switch: behaves similar to iPhone's.

Headphone jack: in same place as iPhone.

On screen keyboard: huge keys. You seem to want to "peck" with two fingers, not touch type. Even so, you spend a disproportionate amount of time backspacing. Or I do.

Notes: Interesting overlay, like an HTML layer, with an index of all your notes, so you can keep the current note in view while browsing for another.

YouTube: super smooth. I love the new tracking functionality: you can scroll through the movie by whole minutes by dragging on the time bar, or seconds by scrolling far away from the time bar.

iBooks:just look

I don't know what it is about this device. But it just feels "right". reading the WSJ feels like I'm reading the actual newspaper, not just a web-page rendition. It's so comfortable. I don't have to FIGHT this computer. This is 1984. Bad hairstyles and all. I am very eager to download my favourite apps (NoteApp, MuniApp, Tap-Tap (yes, I do play occasionally), Google Earth, Google Voice (for the fun of it), and soon, iWork.) I do think that this is a content creation device as much as the iPhone is an email device (people have started sending more, shorter mobile emails, imperfect as it is, it's a blessing after T9)

This will be everywhere. Entire communities will skip the laptop and jump straight into the iPad. Medicine will be different. Research will be different. And of course, reading will be different.

Good night from CA.

Mr Toyoda suffers unintended acceleration to DC

2010-02-17T08:21:00.000-08:00

Darrell Issa, the most senior Republican on the House Oversight Committee, is putting significant pressure on the Toyota CEO (Akio Toyoda - seems like a long dynasty) to appear before a Senate hearing committee on Toyota's accelerator and brake problems. Sending his North American head does not seem to be enough for this hard-nosed Republican. Surely the head of North American operations is equally accountable, with the trust invested in him by his Japanese boss for sales of cars to American consumers? Or is Mr Issa after his moment of glory, in shaming an "alien" CEO? Please.

On a technical level, what's interesting is Toyota Motor's proposed fix to the accelerator problem. As described by the FT, this would kill the engine when the accelerator and brake were pressed simultaneously. Meaning that if I had to take off from my driveway in ice, I'd be out of luck....

OK, it has never snowed in San Carlos :)

The Pigs and the Stupid

2010-02-12T08:50:00.000-08:00

Niall Ferguson is a Glaswegian economic historian, who is the author of the book "The Ascent of Money". I bought the DVD (published in the US by PBS) for a friend, and recommended the book to another friend last night in Borders. She promptly bought it. If you were to choose between the two, choose the DVD, as the footage of Venice is breathtaking, and gives a visual sense of the sheer power of the Italian Mendici family, and its lasting legacy.

In his piece in the FT today, Mr Ferguson suggests that the crisis currently affecting Greece will soon reach America. A Libertarian friend of mine, whom I took for a walk to the Stanford dish, suggested, like Mr Ferguson does, that the multiplier effect of government spending is low, and therefore the effects of an economic stimulus are likely to be a waste of public money.

While it's very clear that the current US administration has inherited much of the current deficit (paid for by bonds bought by the Chinese), it's also clear that now the cash cow's run dry (China now expects to buy a token 5% of new issue, and threatens to liquidate existing holdings every time the Dalai Lama shows up in DC), America is planning some austerity measures of its own. By austerity I mean a freeze on "non-essential" spending for the next three years.

To answer Mr Ferguson's question: "But the key question is when that crisis will reach the last bastion of western power, on the other side of the Atlantic."

The answer is "NO", because an exogenous shock will see America through, like it did in the early 90s (with the Internet boom) and like it did in 2003 (with the housing boom). In this case, it will be out of the government's control. But it will happen.
Put your wallet away, Mr Obama.

Trust me.

PS As I've received a few emails about the title, I am not calling anybody a "pig" or "Stupid". These are, in fact, derogatory acronyms for countries asking for bailouts or about to require bailouts, and have been banned by the FT. To give you a clue, the G in Pig stands for Greece. Figure out the rest, or see the FT

Less proprietary trading please!

2010-02-05T12:47:00.000-08:00

What I love about the proposed new legislation (that the media informs us, is aimed at "reigning in" banks, giving us the impression that they've become wild horses) is that it will limit proprietary trading. PT is what disgusted me enough to abandon dreams of a career in London's financial district and instead work on something "real" ("real" in this case being the Network Computer).

Simply put, proprietary trading allows bank employees to take bets with the bank's own money - in things like commodities, Forex, equities, fixed income instruments and corporate and government bonds. Makes markets more efficient, say the bankers through their Porsche windows at traffic lights. Makes my petrol and food more expensive, I say, remembering volatility in petrol prices caused by huge speculative effort (banks giving the most weight to this). And airlines having an excuse adding a "fuel surcharge" to their fares (to offset their non-fuel operational costs).

"Capping the overall size of banks" sounds knee jerk to me. But if it can clip the wings of the bank-that-one-dare-not-name, I'm all in favour.

In short, I'd say that the government's plan needs some time to be thought out. With non-lobbyist bankers representing the banks' interests. "How big should a bank be", "what reserve limits should be enforced", "what would the underwriting limits be for commercial lending", "how risky can their bets be" are all questions that need to be answered.

Meanwhile, I'm off to the ranch to reign in some Mustangs (the kind that don't have an investment banker sitting inside).

The iPad

2010-01-28T12:59:00.000-08:00

Now that the excitement's died down, I'd like to say a couple of things about the new iPad:

1. The most amazing thing was the price, and I think that by pitching the entry-level product at $499, Apple has irreversibly disrupted the executive-gadget market

2. The AT&T deal for "only" $30 unlimited data is an appeasement to AT&T, the dying beast that Apple are sworn to protect. I forecast that most professionals will find a way to tether iphones or regular phones to their iPads (through some jailbreak solution) and will forego the $130. The only entities that will spend $130 for the privilege of paying AT&T more money will be corporations. And fleet purchases will add up (will be a new executive privilege (akin to Blackberries in the early 2000s)).

3. 16MB is enough for everyone. Storage is cheap, and tethering by USB to your desktop will be what most people will get by on. Face it, will being able to store 20 two-hour videos at a time be much different from being able to store 5 two-hour videos? Unless you're leaving your home for a year?

4. No camera. Whatever. This ain't no netbook. It's firmly aimed at Amazon, not at Asus.

5. Compatibility with iphone/ipod touch apps. Smart move! There's a critical mass of developers out there just waiting to create database, spreadsheet utilities! :-) Actually, expect a new cottage industry of such companies. By charging $10 for its full iWork suite, Apple is setting the bar very low...

6. The netbook won't die. I know hundreds of professional photographers who'd lug one around. But the HP Slate will be stillborn. Why have the privilege of running Windows 7, when you can do 95% of what you want in real style?

7. Cutting through all the noise about the use of the "iPad" name, have a look at the AAPL Jan 2011 call option prices. They are a superb buy. With even 5m sales of the iPad, they are golden.

Great job, Apple, except for the AT&T ball-and-chain.

TechCrunch hacked... :(

2010-01-26T22:21:00.001-08:00

The Nexus and the Olive Tree

2010-01-09T09:36:00.000-08:00

Synopsis:
1. Why the Nexus One is bad for Google
2. Why I'm abandoning my iPhone
Reading time: 6 minutes
Comments very welcome

Much like the Toyota of the 80s, HTC have mastered the art of mass production, and have customers lining up to buy their product based on low cost, reasonable performance, and, "Believe it or not, Reversi!"

In the pre-Lexus, pre-Acura era, Japanese carmakers struggled hard to capture the imaginations of value-conscious consumers who would notice that the Camry was offered in only one trim level, yet featured luxuries (for the era) like electric windows, a sunroof, alloy wheels and a digital radio cassette player. On a $32,000 BMW 325i, you'd pay almost $1000 extra for electric windows, and you'd take delivery of your car with wires sticking out where the radio should be.

Features, schmeatures, I'd say. People still bought the 325i and, at traffic lights, would crank down their windows and smirk at the Accord driver next to them. If features were truly important, how do we explain monstrosities like the Motorola ROKR (Apple's attempt to create a product in partnership with the leading handset maker) that failed to capture the media or the tune-hungry generation Y? Simple - the ingredients were there but the cake went flat.

Google, too, should know better than commission a high-volume producer, shackled by its own management, marketing and product constraints, to build a phone. In my opinion, Google should start a completely new hardware business from the ground up, and hire Apple engineers, product managers (everyone has a price), HTC business development people, and really invest heavily in redefining WHAT a phone is, much like Apple have done.

Having used an HTC product in 2006 for a year, I can say that my first impression was that it was the equivalent of a second-rate athlete on powerful steroids. Playing with my brother's 2009 HTC Hero, I can say that nothing has changed. It still has the HTC DNA, and feels like a smartphone with knobs on. Much like a 2009 Honda CRV "feels" like a 1979 Honda Civic. And a 2009 Ford 500 "Feels" like a 1997 Ford Escort. The Google Nexus One is a win for HTC, but severe brand dilution for Google. It's equivalent of Pierre Cardin agreeing to branding deals with lesser clothing manufacturers, that sent his brand down-market, or Ralph Lauren, Calvin Klein products that can now be bought in the sub-$20 price range at discount retailers.

I think that Apple have enough people to blow their trumpet, so I'm going to add fuel to my gripe below, before I bring out the match. In my opinion, the iPhone should be spelt "Iphone". Because it's NOT an outstanding PHONE but an outstanding "I"-product. Apart from visual voicemail (which was available before, but never widely used), the iPhone brought little innovation to the way that a phone was used to make calls. And there's so much that could be done to innovate in that regard, especially as the iPhone community is huge and iPhone users make most of their calls to other iPhone users:

- Extend caller ID (which has been around since the 80s) into caller info.
eg: Alam Kasenally calling RE broken down on 101! HELP!
(that might change your opinion on whether you want to answer my call)

- Call priority: Emergency ringtones signifying something is an emergency, or muted ringtones if I'm calling you late at night about something that can wait

- Voice authentication. The length of your vocal cords is fixed, and your voice has a unique signature and fundamental frequencies. A quick phone automated call to you from your bank, whenever you make a credit-card transaction, where you say a standard phrase (like "Open Sesame") could confirm your identity. Yes, even if you're putting on a 1930s Southern Gentleman accent
- Have a record button that will allow you to record parts of a phone conversation easily. "What's you professor's email?" " charles@boffin.com". "Thanks, got it". Index all recordings by phone number and time automatically. Saves hunting for a pencil. While you're driving. Oops. If you work for the CHP and you drive a motorbike, pretend you haven't read this.

Come on, Apple, you don't need AT&T anymore so stop shackling yourself to their marketing requirements, and redefine your product in ways that AT&T would be happy to be part of.

The sad part:

However, I am planning to abandon my iPhone and buy a used Verizon Blackberry Worldphone.
Why? Because I need to make and receive calls reliably, a privilege not afforded to me with my iPhone in the Bay Area. A missed call that I don't see for 2 hours could be a lost star employee for our team, an angry customer who's a blogpost away from destroying our business, or a reporter who's got a choice of 2 companies to cover, and, well, chooses the other because they answered the phone and we didn't.
Don't get me wrong: I enjoy using my iPhone. From its form factor, to the few applications that I rely on (the Alarm clock, MuniApp, pdaNet, GVMobile, Tap Tap (I've only played it twice, and it's dangerously addictive), etc), to the quality of the device in your hand, it is, hands down, a winning product on par with:

+ The 1980s S Class Mercedes Benz
+ The Porsche 911
+ The 12" Apple Powerbook (Aluminium line)
+ The original iPod
+ The Sony Walkman
+ The original Mini Cooper
+ Google Search ("Grandpa, is it true that Google started out helping people to find things online?". "Well yes, grandson, when I was a boy, greedy people thought that they could sell you stuff on the internet, and it quickly became like a chaotic fish market. Google was the only way you could reliably find what you were looking for. Well, most of the time". "Whoaaaah! I wish young people now were as creative as they were then! Grandpa, if I come to your house, will you show me your PC again?")

My iPhone has a soul, and will live on, just not with the AT&T leech on its back (or maybe with someone else's). But for a businessperson, a phone that you enjoy using but can't guarantee calls on is sadly but an expensive toy.

For my grandfather, b Oct 26, 1908

2009-10-26T13:34:00.000-07:00

Oh Grandfather
You left so peacefully
As the gentle rain that came from heaven
You smiled as you left
And reflected on the claims you made
And the satisfaction that you left your legacy
In me

Had I known
That the joy inside me built up
To a pain as strong a curse
That to feel I could not bear
Which I felt compelled to share
I would have told you you'd live forever
And really meant it
That time

Hanging on was not an option
Your sons and daughters were tacit
In my room 18k kilometres away
I listened though my night
As your heart spoke of leaving
Though to me you'd already left
Checked out when we'd said goodbye
At the gate by your papaya tree
In the mid afternoon, as I stepped into my father's
Unblemished
Brand new car
And waved, as you smiled your knowing smile
Knowing that your grandson was finally setting sail
To the place that you'd made him want to go
Equipped with what you'd given
Him

Oh Grandfather
I have yet to learn
To pay my debts
And to recognize every flower again
And to hold my head up high
And to appreciate that which is first-rate
And to lower my head when I see it
So
I ask you to
Wait and see.

More volatility ahead for the oil price

2009-09-26T08:21:00.001-07:00

Yesterday I noticed a new Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) available on the NYSE. DNO, or the United States Short Oil Fund, takes SHORT positions in oil futures. Therefore, it appreciates as the price of oil declines (in theory anyway - depends how the fund managers channel their funds into the short contracts).

Now, this is very scary. As if USO (The United States Oil Fund) and the tons of other professional instruments weren't enough to force $4 a gallon out of me (or $10/gallon out of my brother) at the pump for a while, the United States Commodity Funds Company (never trust a company with "International" or "United States" in it, or a country whose name includes the word "Democratic") has unleashed yet another way for speculators to, with the lure of a 30-day buck, move the oil price.

President Obama did promise closure of the "Enron loop hole" (Thanks again, Wendy Gramm), that allowed such commodity speculation, before he took office.

So I don't know whether DNO would survive the coming regulation...

So I've put off my temptation to purchase short put options on DNO (gasp! Second order derivatives on a commodity!)

Now for the interesting part.

1 barrel of oil = 42 gallons of oil = 159 litres
1 barrel of oil = about $65
1 barrel of oil yields about 4 gallons of gasoline (gasp! but remember the other fractions that you never see: coal tar, lighter fuel, kerosene, aviation fuel, plastics-grade products, pharma-grade product, etc)
Do the math..

I thought a barrel was this thing I saw at a keg party, or rolling down the planks in "Donkey Kong". But no, a barrel is bigger than I am...

No really, how IS Trono?

2009-09-17T17:23:00.000-07:00

Toronto island, seen from the CN tower. If you look carefully, you can see a small regional aircraft taking off.

Honestly, this has been one of the most challenging, fun, yet bittersweet weeks ever. We've got plenty to show for it. But also a week where I've had to grow up ten years. There's been a very unexpected and unpleasant twist. But, there's something muy special that I'm looking forward to next week...

So, how's Trono?

2009-09-17T17:16:00.001-07:00

After playing cat and mouse with Rogers wireless for over a week, I've given in to the fact that if you haven't paid for something (5c/kb for iPhones and Blackberries), trying to fool your ISP into thinking you're not a smart phone and getting the $7/month unlimited data special will give you this screen 50% of the time, and the other 50% of the time the relief of being able to surf and tether to your heart's content. Just don't let your iPhone go to sleep. Or reboot your iphone (/private/var/root will disappear, erasing the proxy.pac file). Or let the wind blow the wrong way. Or even pass wind. IT WILL STOP WORKING!

Don't make discretionary donations

2009-09-10T06:46:00.000-07:00

On many occasions, whether at supermarkets, restaurants or department stores, I've been asked (while paying my bill) to make a discretionary $1 donation to a named charity. Not wanting to look like a stingy b**tard, I've always complied, as the cashier's always been within earshot of other customers.

Jacquie, my friend in Toronto, explained why this is a bad idea: the company in question always takes a tax deduction on their customer's contributions: it's more often than not free money for them at no expense.

Better, ask for details of the charity (eg the website), and donate at home if you're really interested. Then claim the tax deduction for yourself.

And if you dine at Pizza Express in the UK, resist the urge to donate a discretionary 25p to the "Veneziana fund". Unless you were born in Venice.

Sunrise, Oakville

2009-09-10T06:43:00.001-07:00

Sunrise over Lake Ontario, Canada
Waves. Geese. Seagulls. Joggers on the track. View of downtown Toronto and the CN tower. No internet access. Maybe it's better that way.

Buy electricity stocks

2009-09-01T10:21:00.000-07:00

There's certainly been plenty of fuss in the press lately about investment in Green energy. From Solar panels with 60% efficiency (something that my Uncle, a PhD in photon physics has been investigating) to algae-covered roofing, to the hybrid wars (Toyota still carries the flag), to Bolivia proclaiming itself the new "Saudi Arabia of Lithium" (thanks Peter Day!).

It seems that propulsion of passenger vehicles will, in the United States at least, continue by fossil fuel. There might be a higher transition rate to hybrid vehicles, and, if GM gets its way, a renaissance (can't believe why people think Electric Vehicles are a new thing - they are not!) of EVs. Pure Electric Vehicles will be charged overnight, or, through some amazing induction system, in under 10 minutes at a gas station. However, the electricity will originate from fossil fuels. In France, this electricity might originate from Nuclear power.

Thus we'll see an increase in demand for electricity, and an increase in the demand for oil.

Notice that the stocks of many electricity companies have been creeping up over the past 6 months. Huge demand (both peak and off-peak (off-peak will cease to exist by 2012, as everyone plugs in his car at night creating a surge around 3am)) will mean that electricity companies will increase their prices (not wanting a 2001-style California fiasco). The government will be forced to deregulate the industry, and re-assess the "utilities" as commodities.

My thoughts: CALL OPTIONS ON ELECTRICITY COMPANIES ARE UNDER-PRICED.

WARNING: Not related to Electricity! :)
---------------------------------------
Meanwhile, Internet access will shift towards being a utility. Sorry, AT&T and all of you dark-fibered dinosaurs. You should have seen this coming. Also, AT&T, you ought to grow up. "Hang up when you have finished leaving your voicemail" is so 1930s. This is the age of Twitter for heaven's sake.

Which begs the question, why on earth is ak on Blogger?

I'm back

2009-08-31T18:53:00.000-07:00

It's been a long (and I mean LONG) summer. I don't have much time to write, as I'm on the road next week, but here are some highlights of the fun parts of the summer, in pictures:

Moved to the new house on May 01, 2009.
In the San Carlos hills.

Judy visited in June from Manchester. Adnan visited on business for most of June and all of July.

My sister visited for all of July, and made many new friends in the Bay Area. Here she is with her 2 bothers, I mean brothers

The party, previous to Tasneem's return to France. She invited all her new friends to the party. From TOP to BOTTOM: (tip - use the top edge of a window to track the person against the list below, if you're confused!)

Sean
Alam
Adnan
Borden
Andrew
Alberto
JJ
Victoria
Cathy
Julia Marie (Cutie)
Audrey
Tasneem
Norissa
Min Xuan
Michaelangelo (Cutie)
Vahe
Konstantin
Johnny (Ace photographer)

The purpose of my trip to Europe was a visit to Hamburg, to attend Jan and Khong Bee's spectacular wedding. I met both of them in 2006, and they subsequently met in Singapore in 2007. Magic always happens in Singapore! This was my third trip to Hamburg. I visited with Rohini, KB's friend from Melbourne, who now lives in London. I was very honoured to give a speech at the wedding - in German. Thanks to my friend Christine, who lives in Bandah Aceh. She helped me practice over Skype in my hotel (the "Zleep Hotel") room. Fifty years ago, such associations would not have been possible.

While in the UK, I visited my dear friend Colette, and my dear friend Karen managed to come. I had not seen Karen since 2005. Annie, Colette's daughter, will be attending the University of Chicago to read Philosophy this year.

While in the UK, I managed to see Claire, Gavin and Arwen. Here's a picture of Arwen, now 2 years old, at the lake.

I spent considerable time on the London Underground.
Note, the Underground is a subway system, and not a political movement.
This photo was taken at about 0540, on my way back to Heathrow airport.

While in the UK, I also managed to meet my dear friend from High school, Shantu. Shantu now lives in Cardiff, and is a cardiologist. Here is Shantu with his year old son, Saurav (aka Señor Mario Gonzales).

Not every day that your friend gets NYTed!

2009-08-31T18:51:00.001-07:00

Chapeau! to the amazing Niko.

Niko and Uyen's wedding

Ideas to make Mauritius better

2009-03-11T16:26:00.000-07:00

From time to time, I marvel at how fortunate I am to have good, earnest and thoughtful friends. Today was one of those days.

My friend Avinash Meetoo sent me this:

http://www.noulakaz.net/ideas/

Which is a Google Moderator page with user-generated ideas on how Mauritius could be improved.

Part of making things better is imagining the scope of the problem. And Avinash, in his very brave and creative way, has helped make that a possibility. Not content to whine about what's wrong like most people, he's taken a major step in prioritizing what's wrong, and inspiring people to fix what's wrong. Bravo, Avinash.

ak

The Xpree Party

2008-11-16T08:00:00.000-08:00

In the heart of Palo Alto, California stands a house, garage and shed. Now a historic landmark, the house marks the birthplace of Hewlett Packard, and has been designated the official birthplace of Silicon Valley.

In August 2007, when Xpree was 3 weeks old and we were busy "cranking" (as Mat likes to say ) out a prototype for EA, our mutual friend Jenny Middleton visited from London, and we took her on a walking tour of Mat's neighbourhood. We visited the HP house, but were confined to the outside facade and the plaque for visitors, describing the house as a historical landmark and the birthplace of Silicon Valley. We read the plaque together in wonder at the brave pioneers who had started their company in a garage and made sacrifices in order to push an idea that we believed in through. Never did I believe that we'd have our first party in the HP house.

Left to right: Simon, myself, Leslie, Walter, Mat, Vahe and Mike Pliner (advisor)

Leslie made this all possible, through her friend Sid Espinosa, who works for HP and is head of the HP foundation. And also lives on the top floor of the HP house (where Mr Packard (the "P" in HP) and his wife lived in the 1930s.

The house was rebuilt from the ground up in the 1990s, from only 6 photographs, faithful to the original design and details. The living room and kitchen are museum showcases, with the original Oscillator that Hewlett and Packard built, beautifully showcased, as well as the original giant oven and rusty kettle that Mrs Packard cooked their meals in. The kitchen is also the place that the cofounders interviewed their salesman, who stayed with the pair for 45 years.

Here is a picture of the original garage, restored to its former glory. Credit to our friend Simon for all the excellent photos. I don't know how he did made evening seem like daytime.

Here are Mat and Sid Espinosa, Leslie's dear friend from HP who is soon to be Mayor of Palo Alto. Mat, against his will (Leslie and I had to beg!), gave a speech welcoming the guests to the party and, with great humility, explaining how thankful we were and lucky that we had succeeded this far in the HP tradition.

The children watching TV. It's clear that Sid has held parties here before! The two boys are Huck and Hobie Jamison, and on the far left is Miko.

Walter "Mr Skibus" and "Mr Motorcycle", our dear friend who helped us in our early days, and Julia

John (former CEO of TellMe, friend of Mat's mother and Angel Investor in Xpree), our fearless CEO and Jim (our VP of Sales)

There was plenty of Jamaican food:

Left to right:
John, Stewart (our VC), Greg (our Legal Counsel), myself and Gary (our advisor)

The famous "money shot" captured by Vahe, Leslie, Ed and Mat:

Andres' dream

2008-11-08T09:08:00.000-08:00

Over lunch yesterday, I met Andres, our building Maintenance person at Plug and Play Tech Center. Andres has an interesting story. His brothers and two sisters are with him in the United States.
His other sister and parents are in El Salvador.

In 2001, Andres played for the El Salvador national soccer (football for us) team. He was a star, and on the news and in the newspapers. He was a recognizable celebrity throughout the country. Girls asked his parents for his autograph (I don't remember that happening to me too often). He left his stardom to come to the United States, where he'd always wanted to be. His sister works as a rocket scientist for NASA in Mountain View. His brother is a building contractor. Andres is married and lives in Menlo Park. His dream is to go to England and watch Manchester United play. If he can't do that, Real Madrid will do, he says. I hope his dream comes true.

So, what's it like to be back?

2008-11-08T08:56:00.000-08:00

An historic election, an excited team, a gloomy recession, a menu of wind and sun, a move to another office, an intense spate of hiring. That's what it's like to be back!

I spent a week getting over the jetlag (Going to bed at 9pm, waking up at 4am feeling exhausted), but people around me had no time to wait: there was just too much going on.

In the space of 2 short weeks:

1. America has elected Mr Obama. No news yet on T's nomination, though it seems to be on the cards. At least from what the media report, the country seems to be doing better. I remember the last time I experienced such euphoria was in 1997, when the British Cricket Team started winning their test matches, and everyone wore a smile. For a few years at least...

2. We are hiring a Product Manager, Senior Engineer and TS/Operations Manager

3. We are moving office, with all the planning that comes with it...

4. We are having our Xpree Got Funded party on Nov 15. Our angel investors, Stewart, and all our friends are coming.

5. I am changing. I am throwing away things about myself that I don't like, and attempting to re-invent myself.

We are finally free.

Here's the fun part (as Vahe would say): driving to work or going out to run, I keep on groping for my camera, hoping to snap whatever I find interesting for this blog. But I'm at home now, and a tourist no more.

Here are some learnings from my trip:

People
Smile at everyone. You're a visitor. People like happy visitors.
Listen more than you talk.
Spend time with children. Ask them what they like, and what their friends like. Ask them about their favourite stories. Don't try and teach them new tricks. Until they trust you. Wait up to a year for this, and you'll know when they ask you.
Spend time with people who were good to you in the past. Remind them of this.

Flying:
When flying long distances, take daytime flights. Night flights will damage your stamina.
When flying anywhere, exercise vigorously on the morning of your flight. It's good for your circulation and will help you endure the flight.
When flying anywhere, share your food with the people sitting next to you. You never know who might be sitting next to you.
Don't travel business class. Real leaders travel Economy. Look, and you shall meet them.
Be prepared to find your new best friends on a flight. I did.
Don't yell at check in staff. It makes them feel even worse about their jobs, which they already feel bad about. Smile, and praise them. They'll do you whatever favours they can for you.
Buy your favourite foods before you fly and take them on board. Ask for some fresh fruit and water from the cabin staff, but refuse their cooked meals.
Don't drink coffee, tea or alcohol on board. You'll be dehydrated for days. Drink these (if you must) in your own home.
Bring your own earplugs. Forget the gimmicky $200 Bose noise-cancelling headset. 20 cent foam earplugs are much better.
Use your flight to think about your life. Forget reading, writing and working on your computer. You can do these when you're more productive on the ground.

I'm back

2008-10-29T06:10:00.000-07:00

I ended my holiday on 1415 on October 29, arriving at SFO airport. The questions I was asked at Immigration made me reflect on my trip:

Where have you been for 23 days?
Why did you go to each of these countries?
How long were you at the job that gave you your Green Card?
What are you doing now?
How long have you been doing it for?
Do you have any food in your luggage?
Not even English tea?
Are you going to vote for John McCain, and if not, why not? (no, not really)

Tasneem and I, 2 hours before my departure from Aix, to London

Jed, Alexis, Rob, Sahar, Colette and I went to the Glasshouse in Kew Gardens on the Monday night, just before my departure:

Ryan Air seatbacks. In order to save weight, and clean up costs, RyanAir is configured with no seat back pockets and overhead life jacket holders. The RyanAir staff still attempted to sell loterry tickets on board. But they allowed me to take my carry on on board with no quibbles.

A pain-au-chocolat, NOT a chocolate croissant. As I slowly ate mine on the Cours Mirabeau, the flavours of butter, melting delicate layered pastry and rich dark chocolate brought me back to 1981, where I had tried my first, fresh from Paris. Here is my personal league table of Pain-au-chocolats:

1. Paris

2. Pret-a-Manger, Heathrow airport (actually a chocolate croissant)

3. Aix-en-Provence (the one below)

4. Aix-en-Provence (Monoprix bakery)

100. Whole Foods, San Mateo, California (pain au chocolat sold as a "chocolate croissant", doughy, not flaky, not buttery, chocolate stops halfway through the pastry, etc)

The one below was purchased at Bechard, on the Cours Mirabeau, for 1 euro. Notice the smooth glazed, flaky top, and my thumb print as I tried to hold it:

Mushrooms in the market:

Canteloupe melon in the market. We bought one of these:

View from my sister's window:

Entire duck liver:

Brunch I cooked for my sister and myself (don't laugh): pasta, tofu, tomatoes, egg.

Aix at night:

Ealing, the town I grew up in. My Uncle still lives here, so does my friend Chris Dabrowski:

This is the train that took me to the airport

La foire d'Aix en Provence

My brother's appartment entrance. I left at 0620 on Tuesday Oct 28, and there were still stars in the sky. I think I woke up Alexis on my way out. The building used to be a convent, where you were sent if you were a bad girl. I'm not saying that Alexis is a bad :-)

Adnan's Audi A8. Felt like travelling First class when you were used to United Economy. If it were any bigger, it would have flight attendants...

A lone leaf on the streets of Aix on a Sunday morning:

Did I say that Aix was known for its fountains?

Daybreak over Hounslow. I decided to take a train to the airport, and save 17 GBP:

The US is accused of terrorism. Wonder whether the NYT will report it this way:

Frost over an Ealing park, seen on the way to the airport. I used to play football on fields this frosty, and come home with blue fingers:

Barclays has trademarked the phrase "Hole in the Wall" for use on its ATMs:

UA955, gunmetal grey like the clouds I was used to, growing up in England, but which I never saw on this trip. On the flight, I was seated next to Aza Raskin, who works for the Mozilla foundation. He's a serial entrepreneur, and founded Humanized and Songza. Please check out Songza, it's one of the coolest sites, with the most appealing interface I've seen for a long time. Mozilla is apparently launching Firefox for mobile, in much the same way as Opera has. The only difference is they will have a team of 10, with hundreds of community developers on the project, rather than a team of 500 like Opera does! The flight was uneventful, uncomfortable and extra long. But I was lucky to get to know Aza, and we talked for over 6 hours. He had plenty of tips on how to meet with Walt Mossberg, and how to grow a company.

Speed dating

2008-10-25T12:02:00.001-07:00

Not that much time to write, but here's an elevator pitch:

Arrived in Aix-en-Provence at Tasneem's place on Thursday afternoon (after a long delay)
We went to her classes, on British Civilisation and English Conversation on Friday (the theme of the class was "Speed Dating", and I was assigned to be Hillary Clinton - more on that story later!) (Poor Tasneem ended up having to be W)
Tasneem invited her friend, neighbor and occasional English tutor (Carina) for dinner on Friday
Today Walked around Aix en Provence as the city opened (photos below)
More soon, we're off to have a pizza
She lives above Shannon's Irish pub: they're rowdy until 5am unless you call the police (like the neighbour did once) or wear earplugs (like I did)

Shopping for the dinner party (76 Euros)
My lovely sister:
A church (somewhere)
heavy balcony above some kind of tribunal. The French take administration very seriously
Stone, blue skies, very "rustique"
On our walk, we crashed a wedding:
My first meal in Aix, cooked by my sister. Yummy
My ride over. I'll share the letter I wrote to Stellios and Andy later.
Style:
My sister's favourite bookshop, the "Book In Bar" that serves coffee and scruptious cakes (to your table) while you browse the New Yorker, Longman's Thesaurus or a wide selection of Obama books...
The Vietnamese restaurant below her appartment. The shutters shown are Carina's.

I was wearing a pale blue T Shirt. But no dog collar.
Dinner my sister cooked for Carina:

Note the cat on the roof:
Le Cours Mirabeau, main thoroughfare through Aix en Provence:

The Beach or Bust

2008-10-16T06:17:00.001-07:00

The dentist and the Professor

2008-10-14T20:36:00.000-07:00

It's about 0739, I woke up 2 hours later today, and feel conquered by the sun. I'm going to write first (to save precious bandwidth so that my father can listen to his Obama podcast) and illustrate later. [ed: Podcast over, illustration complete]

Yesterday started with a long run outside up John F Kennedy Avenue, and down Queen Mary Avenue, then down the hill again to my house. Here's my house as seen from the main road (look for the dark grey roof)

Next, made a trip to the hospital, here's a picture of my father (yes, he put the suit on especially for the photo, and the mac is there for effect too (no not really):

Some original artwork from my mum on the wall opposite: oil on wood.

We then had a lively discussion on marketing, and increasing revenue. I told him of my difficult experiences with Kaiser Permanente (yes, Dr Nyachoto, I hope you are reading this), and we agreed that the hospital is small enough to follow up and guide patients PROPERLY.

First, I hopped in the car and drove to the dentists' in Rose Hill. He works in a converted appartment in the middle of Rose Hill's commercial district:

There is only one Sale:

On the way back, I decided to take some backstreets behind the Rose Hill Plaza. And came to a dead-end. But hey, isn't this a nice place to get lost?

Eventually found my way back to the hospital. I had the following conversation with my father, as he dropped my at the University of Mauritius.

Dad: How much did the Dentist charge you?

Me: 700 Roupees ($23)

Dad: As much as that? (looks surprised)

Me: You mean you can do it at home for nothing? (he likes saying that when we go out to restaurants)

Dad: No, he charged you his Foreigners Fee!

Me: Well how much should he charge?

Dad: He charges me Rs 200 ($7)

Me: Well you're his friend

Dad: But you're my son! I can't believe he did this to me!

Me: He didn't. I paid. And he's running a business.

Dad: What if you couldn't afford to pay?

Me: Then he should have charged me less. But I could. besides, what I would have paid in America is $120 (Rs 3600)

Dad: OK.

(later)

Dad (quietly): I can't believe he did that...

Here's the University of Mauritius:

Well, only today, because of Student Elections.

The chanting was loud enough to sound like Paris, c.1968

Roukaya and I had lunch in the faculty dining hall (Panini for me, no garlic thank you) and then attended a lecture by Ellen Barker, Professor Emeritus of the LSE, on Religion, Diversity and Democracy.

No photos allowed, but some interesting points she made:

20% of people surveyed claim to be "spiritual and non-religious"
Families with no religious parents had children who didn't follow a religion
Families with two religious parents had children with a 50/50 chance of becoming religious
People over the age of 20 who had not changed of religion would never change their religion

Next, spent 2 hours in Roukaya's office, working, while she lectured. The view outside the window looked like this:

Sony's email started like this:

Hello Alam,

I don't want to spoil your holiday in Mauritius, but:

Had a wonderful meal at home with Mum and Dad (pumpkin, spinach, roti, sauteed potatoes) (sorry no photos, they asked me to take my camera to the restaurants)

then spent time on Skype with Vahe.

Went to bed 2 hours too late (midnight). Only 6 days left. And evenings are filling up fast....

Hiking in Ferney

2008-10-12T18:57:00.001-07:00

Valley Ferney, a small nature preserve surrounded by deer-hunting grounds. Owned by the Ciel group, a large industrialist. A small area of forest within the valley is open to tourists. The hotel lobby attempted to build a road through the valley to the hotels in Mahebourg, the Ciel group created an activist body that protested the construction, on grounds of destroying biodiversity. The Conservation Ministry became involved in the project, and discovered particular flora (the Nail Tree below is an example) that would become extinct as a result of the highway. The government therefore disallowed the highway project.

Two-dimensional palm trees in Ferney:

Stone statue in Mahebourg, put together by volunteers in 1977:

Mushrooms full of water:

My cousin Roukaya, a professor at the University of Mauritius.

The humble "Nail Tree" that saved the forest. Only three such examples exist in the world.

Me, pretending to be a deer (at Roukaya's request). The truth came out after I spoke to my uncle (the ex-Director of the National Parks) : the forest was saved in order to preserve the hunting grounds, not the Nail Tree!

200 year old tortoise. In no hurry to avoid the paparazzo:

The old hunting lodge, now a restaurant. We had an excellent meal here:

The road out out of the preserve:The lagoon in Mahebourg. A battle was fought here between the British and the French for posession.

Update: First week

2008-10-11T19:01:00.000-07:00

I've finally adjusted to the time difference and the perpetual tiredness of the +11 hour time difference. Woke up at 0500, let the miao-ing cat in from the garage, and had a long look outside at the garden. Mauritius is more wintery than usual, with blustery winds, fine drizzle and dark clouds dominating the skies. It feels more like July and less like October (remember, this is the Southern Hemisphere).

Let me give you a glimpse of my accommodations. I'm staying in my sister's room, which used to be my brother's room, a charming room, complete with luminescent stars on the ceiling, an attached bathroom, air conditioner/heater (which of course there's no use for these days), and a remarkable doll museum:

Here are some pictures of my room:

You might be asking, what about my own room, that I occupied from 1990-1992 as a student in Mauritius. Well it's now a fully-functional gym, that my father uses every night:

From this:

To this:

(and that's not counting the beach! Return on Wednesday to see latest pictures)

Trip: Day 1

2008-10-09T13:34:00.000-07:00

Friday Oct 04, 2008

After a disastrous start (I missed my outgoing 1320 flight to London: reasons why ought not to be discussed, but I take the blame!), I caught the 1900 flight. Vahe dropped me at the airport. Was given an aisle seat, with a spare seat next to me, and managed to sleep for 30 minutes.

I arrived in London at 1300 the next day, and was met by Adnan, who whisked me off to Richmond in his massive black Audi A8. We spent time talking about family matters, and in the evening were joined by Alexis, Adnan's girlfriend, who is an interior designer.

Next, met my cousins, Sahar, Ali and Hasan, who are all students in London (Actually Sahar works at Barclays Bank). Had an Italian meal with them at a local restaurant, squeezing 6 people into the Audi.

Adnan and Alexis showed me to a tastefully decorated room, with a new dual LED lamp and custom sun shades, where I fell into a deep sleep, where I dreamt that I was falling down a long, never-ending chute.

Sunday, October 05, 2008

Woke up at 0930, after not being able to sleep most of the night. Adnan very kindly drove us to Angel, where we had a pleasant brunch, then met with the cousins briefly before making my way home by train, then having dinner with Adnan and Alexis

Monday, October 06, 2008

Went to the Riko gym with Adnan, stylish gym with its own coffee bar, internet-linked exercise equipment and classical music piped into the wood-panelled changing rooms. Then, had a snack with Adnan and went to Embankment station to meet Ali again. Adnan dropped me at the airport at 1900 after picking up Alexis, then boarded Air Mauritius for the epic, 12 hour journey to Mauritius.

Seated next to me was Jennifer, a delightful person and an instant friend, whose English husband has worked for Hong Kong telecom for 25 years. She lives in Trou aux Biches and knows Hugh Vitry (the Divemaster) and Shanaz and Coen (my friends in South Africa, also divemasters). We talked for nearly 11 hours. Truly delightful and very charming!

Met my Mum and Dad in Mauritius at about 1130 am, and was whisked to the house in the Honda CRV, with my mum driving and dad sitting in the back. We spent the rest of the day talking, though I had to interrupt for a 3 hour nap. Jetlag was starting to catch up.

Solar powered plane

2008-08-24T15:54:00.000-07:00

A British firm has developed a prototype of an unmanned aeriel vehicle (UAV) to be used to assist military reconaissance operations.

One word describes it: elegant

No stats yet on the speed such an aircraft could attain.

I'd be sure that 450kg could certainly support a single human passenger, pressurization system and water.

Take-off velocity might be reached by launch from an aircraft-carrier catapult.

Could this be the future of air travel?

The Energy Race

2008-08-03T22:04:00.000-07:00

One of the most spectacular failings of the current Administration has been its alternative energy policy.

Its policies have had these goals at their forefront:

1. Ensure that alternatives will be owned by BigOil (Biodiesel)

2. Ensure that BigOil's distribution network will be maintained (Hydrogen)

3. Shift focus away from the physical alternative to the source (drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge as opposed to importing oil from people who "want" to kill us)

Needless to say, these policies haven't done anything to help matters.

1. Riots worldwide, due to a shortage of staple food crops and consequently higher food prices.

2. A $1,000,000 prototype that currently only Mr Schwarzenneger can afford, with about two sources of fuel in the whole of California. The best available so far is hydrogen gas dissolved in an organic, petroleum-derived solvent, stored in high pressure, super-cooled canisters under the vehicle. The best part: go on holiday for 2 weeks and your full-tank of hydrogen's gone. This energy source is at least 15 years from production

3. I feel sorry even watching Mr Bush declare this a victory. Mr Reagan, at least, could get away with statements like these, as he compensated for them with his great ability to win over his audience.

I can only hope that the next government has fewer lobbyists in key cabinet positions, and that its leader declares an Energy Race (akin to the Space Race). A key element of this energy race would be reducing demand (just as a key element of the space race was predicting demand for the spinoffs of expensive prototype technologies: don't think that these happened by accident (well except for the publically available zero-gravity pressurized pen but that's another story)).

Reduction in demand could easily come from federal incentives for cities to create micro-communities, that would require less commuting, tax breaks to micro-community employers, employees, schools, supermarkets, hospitals, malls, real-estate developers and so on.

The airline industry is dead. Long live the airline industry

2008-07-31T10:19:00.001-07:00

1. Oil prices are higher. Over $140. In small part due to a loophole that allows speculators to bid the price up (thanks Wendy Gramm), but in most part due to the fact that there is no more oil (despite what Enron says about makings lots of money from oil exploration). Oil's a dying business, which leads us on to:

2. How much thrust do you need to bring a 350-tonne aircraft airborne? Answer: over 800 kiloNewton, an amount not available using solar panels, even at 20% efficiency, electric or even biodiesel (in a pinch)

3. But what about Natural Gas? Hmmm, smart, as it preserves BigOil's distribution infrastructure. But still a finite fossil fuel, and in shortish supply.

4. The only non-oil alternative capable of generating large amounts of energy on demand (almost) is nuclear power. But good luck controlling a nuclear reactor at 30,000 feet, let alone flying lead around to shield your passengers.

5. Southwest Airlines and Jetblue's recent announcements of supernormal profits from having hedged for fuel prices of around $50-80 for their 2008 fuel purchases were very wise and very lucky. It's unlikely that any airline will secure such lucky pricing from now on on their hedges.

6. Which of course will discount their current share prices

7. Can American Airlines swallow Continental whole? Expect to hear such stories (or rather talks of "friendly" mergers first, until the target's unions force their employers to put up stiff resistance (you can't exactly merge without a core workforce, though predators might like to think you can)

8. A flagging economy won't help things, as business travel expenses will be cut first (and people flying economy class will be sick of fares like these:

SFO-LHR-SFO, departing mid-October 2008, 16 day trip:

Taxes and Fees

Please read the following carefully.
Display of fares, taxes and fees in:
Advertising: Fares shown in off-site and on-site advertisements include the service fee described below and some, but not all, applicable taxes, charges and government-imposed fees.
Flight Cost Summary: On the Flight Cost Summary page, and all subsequent pages leading to a booking, all taxes, charges (including fuel surcharges), service fees, and government and airport authority fees are either included in the fare or itemized separately to provide a total trip cost.
Government and other authority taxes and fees:
September 11 Security Fee: A September 11 Security Fee of $2.50 USD applies per flight segment (maximum charge per trip -- $5.00 USD one-way, $10.00 USD round-trip). A flight segment is defined as one takeoff and one landing.
Passenger Facility Charges: Passenger Facility Charges (PFCs) of up to $18.00 USD may apply, depending upon the itinerary chosen.
Federal Excise Tax: A 7.5% domestic tax applied to the airline base fare. The tax may be pro-rated for flights to/from the 48 contiguous U.S. states and Alaska and Hawaii, and some international destinations. A Travel Facilities Tax of $7.70 USD per direction also applies to flights to/from Alaska and Hawaii and the 48 contiguous U.S. states or between Alaska and Hawaii.
Federal Domestic Flight Segment Fee: A federal domestic flight segment fee of $3.50 USD applies per flight segment. A flight segment is defined as one takeoff and one landing.
U.S. or International Departure and Arrival Charges: U.S. or international departure and arrival charges of up to $200.00 USD may apply [ed- ????????????????? isn't my arrival or departure supposed to be included in the fare?], but may vary depending upon the itinerary chosen.

Sad to see airlines blaming the government by using the "Tax" word (tax takes about 15%: 85% of the "taxes and fees" are simply to offset the airline's costs. The advertised fare of $415 is just a marketing disguise... Now, additional $10 fees to check in your baggage are adding insult to injury (but helping airlines meet their marginal cost), yet are distracting the flying public from the obvious question: why are airlines blaming high prices on the government?

9. Having said all this, the airline industry is likely to see a temporary boost in 2009, due to the exogenous effects of an election year, and a new energy boom (that will fuel cars and homes, not airplanes)

Cuil's almost there...

2008-07-31T10:12:00.000-07:00

...but needs some work

http://www.cuil.com/search?q=cobol&sl=long

I'm not sure about Yuil -seemed to give me more ads than results (and that was before it got taken down!)