Thursday, July 31, 2008

The airline industry is dead. Long live the airline industry

1. Oil prices are higher. Over $140. In small part due to a loophole that allows speculators to bid the price up (thanks Wendy Gramm), but in most part due to the fact that there is no more oil (despite what Enron says about makings lots of money from oil exploration). Oil's a dying business, which leads us on to:
2. How much thrust do you need to bring a 350-tonne aircraft airborne? Answer: over 800 kiloNewton, an amount not available using solar panels, even at 20% efficiency, electric or even biodiesel (in a pinch)
3. But what about Natural Gas? Hmmm, smart, as it preserves BigOil's distribution infrastructure. But still a finite fossil fuel, and in shortish supply.
4. The only non-oil alternative capable of generating large amounts of energy on demand (almost) is nuclear power. But good luck controlling a nuclear reactor at 30,000 feet, let alone flying lead around to shield your passengers.
5. Southwest Airlines and Jetblue's recent announcements of supernormal profits from having hedged for fuel prices of around $50-80 for their 2008 fuel purchases were very wise and very lucky. It's unlikely that any airline will secure such lucky pricing from now on on their hedges.
6. Which of course will discount their current share prices
7. Can American Airlines swallow Continental whole? Expect to hear such stories (or rather talks of "friendly" mergers first, until the target's unions force their employers to put up stiff resistance (you can't exactly merge without a core workforce, though predators might like to think you can)
8. A flagging economy won't help things, as business travel expenses will be cut first (and people flying economy class will be sick of fares like these:

SFO-LHR-SFO, departing mid-October 2008, 16 day trip:


Taxes and Fees

Please read the following carefully.
Display of fares, taxes and fees in:
Advertising: Fares shown in off-site and on-site advertisements include the service fee described below and some, but not all, applicable taxes, charges and government-imposed fees.
Flight Cost Summary: On the Flight Cost Summary page, and all subsequent pages leading to a booking, all taxes, charges (including fuel surcharges), service fees, and government and airport authority fees are either included in the fare or itemized separately to provide a total trip cost.
Government and other authority taxes and fees:
September 11 Security Fee: A September 11 Security Fee of $2.50 USD applies per flight segment (maximum charge per trip -- $5.00 USD one-way, $10.00 USD round-trip). A flight segment is defined as one takeoff and one landing.
Passenger Facility Charges: Passenger Facility Charges (PFCs) of up to $18.00 USD may apply, depending upon the itinerary chosen.
Federal Excise Tax: A 7.5% domestic tax applied to the airline base fare. The tax may be pro-rated for flights to/from the 48 contiguous U.S. states and Alaska and Hawaii, and some international destinations. A Travel Facilities Tax of $7.70 USD per direction also applies to flights to/from Alaska and Hawaii and the 48 contiguous U.S. states or between Alaska and Hawaii.
Federal Domestic Flight Segment Fee: A federal domestic flight segment fee of $3.50 USD applies per flight segment. A flight segment is defined as one takeoff and one landing.
U.S. or International Departure and Arrival Charges: U.S. or international departure and arrival charges of up to $200.00 USD may apply [ed- ????????????????? isn't my arrival or departure supposed to be included in the fare?], but may vary depending upon the itinerary chosen.


Sad to see airlines blaming the government by using the "Tax" word (tax takes about 15%: 85% of the "taxes and fees" are simply to offset the airline's costs. The advertised fare of $415 is just a marketing disguise... Now, additional $10 fees to check in your baggage are adding insult to injury (but helping airlines meet their marginal cost), yet are distracting the flying public from the obvious question: why are airlines blaming high prices on the government?


9. Having said all this, the airline industry is likely to see a temporary boost in 2009, due to the exogenous effects of an election year, and a new energy boom (that will fuel cars and homes, not airplanes)


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