Now that the excitement's died down, I'd like to say a couple of things about the new iPad:
1. The most amazing thing was the price, and I think that by pitching the entry-level product at $499, Apple has irreversibly disrupted the executive-gadget market
2. The AT&T deal for "only" $30 unlimited data is an appeasement to AT&T, the dying beast that Apple are sworn to protect. I forecast that most professionals will find a way to tether iphones or regular phones to their iPads (through some jailbreak solution) and will forego the $130. The only entities that will spend $130 for the privilege of paying AT&T more money will be corporations. And fleet purchases will add up (will be a new executive privilege (akin to Blackberries in the early 2000s)).
3. 16MB is enough for everyone. Storage is cheap, and tethering by USB to your desktop will be what most people will get by on. Face it, will being able to store 20 two-hour videos at a time be much different from being able to store 5 two-hour videos? Unless you're leaving your home for a year?
4. No camera. Whatever. This ain't no netbook. It's firmly aimed at Amazon, not at Asus.
5. Compatibility with iphone/ipod touch apps. Smart move! There's a critical mass of developers out there just waiting to create database, spreadsheet utilities! :-) Actually, expect a new cottage industry of such companies. By charging $10 for its full iWork suite, Apple is setting the bar very low...
6. The netbook won't die. I know hundreds of professional photographers who'd lug one around. But the HP Slate will be stillborn. Why have the privilege of running Windows 7, when you can do 95% of what you want in real style?
7. Cutting through all the noise about the use of the "iPad" name, have a look at the AAPL Jan 2011 call option prices. They are a superb buy. With even 5m sales of the iPad, they are golden.
Great job, Apple, except for the AT&T ball-and-chain.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Saturday, January 9, 2010
The Nexus and the Olive Tree
Synopsis:
1. Why the Nexus One is bad for Google
2. Why I'm abandoning my iPhone
Reading time: 6 minutes
Comments very welcome
Much like the Toyota of the 80s, HTC have mastered the art of mass production, and have customers lining up to buy their product based on low cost, reasonable performance, and, "Believe it or not, Reversi!"
In the pre-Lexus, pre-Acura era, Japanese carmakers struggled hard to capture the imaginations of value-conscious consumers who would notice that the Camry was offered in only one trim level, yet featured luxuries (for the era) like electric windows, a sunroof, alloy wheels and a digital radio cassette player. On a $32,000 BMW 325i, you'd pay almost $1000 extra for electric windows, and you'd take delivery of your car with wires sticking out where the radio should be.
Features, schmeatures, I'd say. People still bought the 325i and, at traffic lights, would crank down their windows and smirk at the Accord driver next to them. If features were truly important, how do we explain monstrosities like the Motorola ROKR (Apple's attempt to create a product in partnership with the leading handset maker) that failed to capture the media or the tune-hungry generation Y? Simple - the ingredients were there but the cake went flat.
Google, too, should know better than commission a high-volume producer, shackled by its own management, marketing and product constraints, to build a phone. In my opinion, Google should start a completely new hardware business from the ground up, and hire Apple engineers, product managers (everyone has a price), HTC business development people, and really invest heavily in redefining WHAT a phone is, much like Apple have done.
Having used an HTC product in 2006 for a year, I can say that my first impression was that it was the equivalent of a second-rate athlete on powerful steroids. Playing with my brother's 2009 HTC Hero, I can say that nothing has changed. It still has the HTC DNA, and feels like a smartphone with knobs on. Much like a 2009 Honda CRV "feels" like a 1979 Honda Civic. And a 2009 Ford 500 "Feels" like a 1997 Ford Escort. The Google Nexus One is a win for HTC, but severe brand dilution for Google. It's equivalent of Pierre Cardin agreeing to branding deals with lesser clothing manufacturers, that sent his brand down-market, or Ralph Lauren, Calvin Klein products that can now be bought in the sub-$20 price range at discount retailers.
I think that Apple have enough people to blow their trumpet, so I'm going to add fuel to my gripe below, before I bring out the match. In my opinion, the iPhone should be spelt "Iphone". Because it's NOT an outstanding PHONE but an outstanding "I"-product. Apart from visual voicemail (which was available before, but never widely used), the iPhone brought little innovation to the way that a phone was used to make calls. And there's so much that could be done to innovate in that regard, especially as the iPhone community is huge and iPhone users make most of their calls to other iPhone users:
- Extend caller ID (which has been around since the 80s) into caller info.
eg: Alam Kasenally calling RE broken down on 101! HELP!
(that might change your opinion on whether you want to answer my call)
- Call priority: Emergency ringtones signifying something is an emergency, or muted ringtones if I'm calling you late at night about something that can wait
- Voice authentication. The length of your vocal cords is fixed, and your voice has a unique signature and fundamental frequencies. A quick phone automated call to you from your bank, whenever you make a credit-card transaction, where you say a standard phrase (like "Open Sesame") could confirm your identity. Yes, even if you're putting on a 1930s Southern Gentleman accent
- Have a record button that will allow you to record parts of a phone conversation easily. "What's you professor's email?" " charles@boffin.com". "Thanks, got it". Index all recordings by phone number and time automatically. Saves hunting for a pencil. While you're driving. Oops. If you work for the CHP and you drive a motorbike, pretend you haven't read this.
Come on, Apple, you don't need AT&T anymore so stop shackling yourself to their marketing requirements, and redefine your product in ways that AT&T would be happy to be part of.
The sad part:
However, I am planning to abandon my iPhone and buy a used Verizon Blackberry Worldphone.
Why? Because I need to make and receive calls reliably, a privilege not afforded to me with my iPhone in the Bay Area. A missed call that I don't see for 2 hours could be a lost star employee for our team, an angry customer who's a blogpost away from destroying our business, or a reporter who's got a choice of 2 companies to cover, and, well, chooses the other because they answered the phone and we didn't.
Don't get me wrong: I enjoy using my iPhone. From its form factor, to the few applications that I rely on (the Alarm clock, MuniApp, pdaNet, GVMobile, Tap Tap (I've only played it twice, and it's dangerously addictive), etc), to the quality of the device in your hand, it is, hands down, a winning product on par with:
+ The 1980s S Class Mercedes Benz
+ The Porsche 911
+ The 12" Apple Powerbook (Aluminium line)
+ The original iPod
+ The Sony Walkman
+ The original Mini Cooper
+ Google Search ("Grandpa, is it true that Google started out helping people to find things online?". "Well yes, grandson, when I was a boy, greedy people thought that they could sell you stuff on the internet, and it quickly became like a chaotic fish market. Google was the only way you could reliably find what you were looking for. Well, most of the time". "Whoaaaah! I wish young people now were as creative as they were then! Grandpa, if I come to your house, will you show me your PC again?")
My iPhone has a soul, and will live on, just not with the AT&T leech on its back (or maybe with someone else's). But for a businessperson, a phone that you enjoy using but can't guarantee calls on is sadly but an expensive toy.
1. Why the Nexus One is bad for Google
2. Why I'm abandoning my iPhone
Reading time: 6 minutes
Comments very welcome
Much like the Toyota of the 80s, HTC have mastered the art of mass production, and have customers lining up to buy their product based on low cost, reasonable performance, and, "Believe it or not, Reversi!"
In the pre-Lexus, pre-Acura era, Japanese carmakers struggled hard to capture the imaginations of value-conscious consumers who would notice that the Camry was offered in only one trim level, yet featured luxuries (for the era) like electric windows, a sunroof, alloy wheels and a digital radio cassette player. On a $32,000 BMW 325i, you'd pay almost $1000 extra for electric windows, and you'd take delivery of your car with wires sticking out where the radio should be.
Features, schmeatures, I'd say. People still bought the 325i and, at traffic lights, would crank down their windows and smirk at the Accord driver next to them. If features were truly important, how do we explain monstrosities like the Motorola ROKR (Apple's attempt to create a product in partnership with the leading handset maker) that failed to capture the media or the tune-hungry generation Y? Simple - the ingredients were there but the cake went flat.
Google, too, should know better than commission a high-volume producer, shackled by its own management, marketing and product constraints, to build a phone. In my opinion, Google should start a completely new hardware business from the ground up, and hire Apple engineers, product managers (everyone has a price), HTC business development people, and really invest heavily in redefining WHAT a phone is, much like Apple have done.
Having used an HTC product in 2006 for a year, I can say that my first impression was that it was the equivalent of a second-rate athlete on powerful steroids. Playing with my brother's 2009 HTC Hero, I can say that nothing has changed. It still has the HTC DNA, and feels like a smartphone with knobs on. Much like a 2009 Honda CRV "feels" like a 1979 Honda Civic. And a 2009 Ford 500 "Feels" like a 1997 Ford Escort. The Google Nexus One is a win for HTC, but severe brand dilution for Google. It's equivalent of Pierre Cardin agreeing to branding deals with lesser clothing manufacturers, that sent his brand down-market, or Ralph Lauren, Calvin Klein products that can now be bought in the sub-$20 price range at discount retailers.
I think that Apple have enough people to blow their trumpet, so I'm going to add fuel to my gripe below, before I bring out the match. In my opinion, the iPhone should be spelt "Iphone". Because it's NOT an outstanding PHONE but an outstanding "I"-product. Apart from visual voicemail (which was available before, but never widely used), the iPhone brought little innovation to the way that a phone was used to make calls. And there's so much that could be done to innovate in that regard, especially as the iPhone community is huge and iPhone users make most of their calls to other iPhone users:
- Extend caller ID (which has been around since the 80s) into caller info.
eg: Alam Kasenally calling RE broken down on 101! HELP!
(that might change your opinion on whether you want to answer my call)
- Call priority: Emergency ringtones signifying something is an emergency, or muted ringtones if I'm calling you late at night about something that can wait
- Voice authentication. The length of your vocal cords is fixed, and your voice has a unique signature and fundamental frequencies. A quick phone automated call to you from your bank, whenever you make a credit-card transaction, where you say a standard phrase (like "Open Sesame") could confirm your identity. Yes, even if you're putting on a 1930s Southern Gentleman accent
- Have a record button that will allow you to record parts of a phone conversation easily. "What's you professor's email?" " charles@boffin.com". "Thanks, got it". Index all recordings by phone number and time automatically. Saves hunting for a pencil. While you're driving. Oops. If you work for the CHP and you drive a motorbike, pretend you haven't read this.
Come on, Apple, you don't need AT&T anymore so stop shackling yourself to their marketing requirements, and redefine your product in ways that AT&T would be happy to be part of.
The sad part:
However, I am planning to abandon my iPhone and buy a used Verizon Blackberry Worldphone.
Why? Because I need to make and receive calls reliably, a privilege not afforded to me with my iPhone in the Bay Area. A missed call that I don't see for 2 hours could be a lost star employee for our team, an angry customer who's a blogpost away from destroying our business, or a reporter who's got a choice of 2 companies to cover, and, well, chooses the other because they answered the phone and we didn't.
Don't get me wrong: I enjoy using my iPhone. From its form factor, to the few applications that I rely on (the Alarm clock, MuniApp, pdaNet, GVMobile, Tap Tap (I've only played it twice, and it's dangerously addictive), etc), to the quality of the device in your hand, it is, hands down, a winning product on par with:
+ The 1980s S Class Mercedes Benz
+ The Porsche 911
+ The 12" Apple Powerbook (Aluminium line)
+ The original iPod
+ The Sony Walkman
+ The original Mini Cooper
+ Google Search ("Grandpa, is it true that Google started out helping people to find things online?". "Well yes, grandson, when I was a boy, greedy people thought that they could sell you stuff on the internet, and it quickly became like a chaotic fish market. Google was the only way you could reliably find what you were looking for. Well, most of the time". "Whoaaaah! I wish young people now were as creative as they were then! Grandpa, if I come to your house, will you show me your PC again?")
My iPhone has a soul, and will live on, just not with the AT&T leech on its back (or maybe with someone else's). But for a businessperson, a phone that you enjoy using but can't guarantee calls on is sadly but an expensive toy.
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